Thursday, November 27, 2008

The Esoteric Rule of Three, Flip-flopping & the Dow Jones

CURRENT EVENTS - Politics and the Dow Jones!!!

Over the past few years the term "flip-flopper" has entered the venacular of American Society.

It is exactly how I feel I am being after every game now. For one game these guys look like they could go all the way and the next game they look like they could go all the way to Tavares. Today, I flip-flopped back from yesterday, I am rooting for the cellar regardless of what the standings say.

Why do I say this?

Josh Bailey.

This kid is fun to watch. I would rather send him back down for a few more months of development & bring him back up when we get Tavares. This will ensure time for the other youngsters in our system are ready to play. I am very excited about our future.

We need to stay the course to use this year as a true "rebuilding" year. Rebuilding as a hockey team should be rebuilt and not "in the image" of Milbury, rebuilding us every year for a decade. Call me selfish but I don't want to get my hopes dashed later in the year when we go on the annual 10-game losing streak but only end up at the 5th or 6th pick overall.

In the esoteric, you will find the many different statistics. Many of these are presented in a way that many people have never seen before and a way you won't find on the sports page of your local newspaper.

One of the Esoteric Stats is the NY Islanders Esoteric NHL Standings. This is your normal standings laid out as if the playoffs started tomorrow, pitting the two teams who would end up going head-to-head in the 1st-round.

Part of the NHL Standings Esoteric are numbers that break down the game from a more macro standpoint. With all the numbers that you get to deal with on a day-to-day basis, trends start to stand out. Some more than others and some you have to look for them. On of the stat's trend that stuck out was the Goals For (GF) and Goals Agasinst (GA) numbers.

Before I talk about the GF/GA per game (PG) average let me talk about this NHL phenomenom I like to call, "The Rule of Three." The rule states that in about 80% of games if you score 3 goals or more you are likely to win or in the era of the tie, not to lose. I came up with this idea years ago because the Islanders would generally only score a goal or two and lose many, many games. Go ahead and watch. You will see. Yes, the "law" doesn't always hold true but it is a good rule of thumb and will make you go, "Hmmmmmm?"

This rule of thumb idea got me seeing the GF/GA PG average in a way similar to the Dow Jones Average chart that we have been seeing everday since the financial collapse.

The Line Chart.

I knew the GF & GA numbers were improving but I wanted to see it in a visual representation. Thus I made the New York Islanders Esoteric GF/GA PG Average Chart you have been seeing on

As I analyze the numbers and trends indicated on the chart, do you know what stands out?

"The Rule of Three."

We are averaging 2.68 Goals per game and giving up 3.23 goals per game. I can't make this up, the numbers stand for themselves. If we get our GF average above 3.00 and the opponent below 3.00 GA, we would be doing a heck of a lot better.

Another trend the chart shows is that our team improved about the 10-game mark. Since about this time, the GA average has steadily been decreasing and we have been holding steady to our GF average.

On the chart, we appear to be scoring barely enough goals to win if we were able to keep the other team from scoring "TOO" many goals against us. There is the thought process of, "yes, of course, if you score more than your opponent, you win." However, the esoteric is showing where the threshold of that thought is held and where we need to draw the line in the sand. In this way it doesn't seem to be such a daunting mission.

If you don't believe me just look at last nights collapse.

Lastly, as much of a flip-flopper that I am, I still want to do well. In order to do that we have to do something unlike the Ghostbusters, who never wanted to "cross the streams". I hope that someday we can cross our streams and make our GF Average Line cross over and be above our GA Average line.


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